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Quantitative Valuations – US REITs

Once again the US REIT market is looking expensive at more than 2 std deviations away from its median yield over the last 11yrs.

We need to however look at the yield spread against 10yr Treasury Bonds as the interest rate environment is not a “normal” one.

We clearly see from a spread point of view the market is not expensive. Of course a sharp change in bond yields could change this significantly.

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Comparative Beta

It is very important to look at beta through the prism of a rolling window and not assume it a constant.

Interestingly the Asia Pacific region runs a much lower beta to the Global REIT index than other regions.

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Comparative Performance

After under performing the Asia Pacific region for a number of years it is nice to see Australia outperforming its regional peers.

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Chasing the Market – Not

One of the lessons I have learned over the years is not to chase the market. At the end of September we migrated the account to a new investment vehicle, a Unit Trust from a Managed Account.
For the last few days of September we were sitting in cash and our intention was to enter a long straddle in the new account. Unfortunately we were only able to trade on the 3rd trading day of the month. As I was getting all our systems setup and getting comfortable with moving out of cash it felt like the market was running away from me and I chose not to chase it.

Anyway today is the 27th of month and the market I benchmark (ASX200 AREIT) is up 2.25% for the month.

Having said that the market after being “stuck” for the last 4hrs has just taken off, up another 2%. Why? Guess why “European leaders persuaded bondholders to take 50 percent losses on Greek debt and boosted the firepower of the rescue fund to 1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion), responding to global pressure to step up the fight against the financial crisis.” (Bloomberg)

The EU has learned nothing from the Fed’s impotence while engaging QE1 & QE2. I strongly believe this pop in the market is likely to fade quickly.

I stand by the posts heading, Chasing the Market is not a good thing.

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Welcome

I am in 2 minds as to how I wish to proceed with this blog.

I find the best way to express myself and to sharpen my ideas is to write them down. I have been doing this for many years probably decades. Part of this expression is completely spontaneous as Freud called it “Free Association” and allows me to flush ideas that are buried in my unconscious (Jung used this term, as opposed to the more established subconscious which Freud popularized).

Another part of my research is to effectively psycho analyze my own thoughts, fears and dreams…………. this is particularly personal and I am not sure if readers of the blog will benefit from such insights or rather be turned away with frank discussions on emotions. We all feel insecure or scared at times, I am not sure how investors will react to this knowledge of their chosen fund manager.

And finally there is the obvious issue of giving away too many trade secrets or ideas which in effect minimizes the need to use Velocity as your fund manager. This is not really a major concern for me, as I don’t believe there is any chance of a reader of this blog being able to replicate our returns in any way shape or form. There are simply way too many other variables that come into managing a complex hedge fund.

I look forward to future posts as I quickly try and learn how to use WordPress. I am a novice website developer as I keep telling my kids technology is the way of the future and its time to practice what I preach.

Mike

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